Modeling an example of green transition

This research aims to understand some aspects of the mechanism of the green transition. It is part of a collaboration between mathematicians and philosophers of ethics, politics, and society aiming to understand mechanisms of green energy transition where some kind of interaction between many subjects and collective behaviors seem to play a role. Green transition is a wide phenomenon that can find its realization in different areas: installation of solar photovoltaics, purchase of electric cars, reduction of the consumption of meat, reduction of the air transport, and so on. We have identified as a first example the case of solar photovoltaic, intending to explain the time series of different nations and, for Italy, different provinces. In the phenomenon of transition to photovoltaic, different types of agents are involved: individuals, industries, public entities, and agricultural entities. We focus mainly on the behavior of industries and individuals. We will show, also by some numerical simulations, how different agents require different mathematical tools. In particular, the time series related to industries seems to be properly described by differential games. The time series of individuals is quite different. Intrigued by this difference, we propose a Markov Chain individual-based model to describe the decisional process of an individual. We focus on the set of individuals that have elaborated a certain positive opinion on the transition to photovoltaic. By collaborating with the philosophical group, we have detected procrastination as one of the main obstacles to transitioning. The introduction of such phenomenon into the modelizations induces the model to be time-inconsistent.